Since britain voted to leave the European Union (EU) in June 2016, Leavers have been gloating. Despite the Remain camp’s dire predictions, the economy seemed to trundle on well enough. But the crowing is dying down. Figures released on August 9th showed that Britain’s GPD shrank in the second quarter. And a growing body of research suggests that Brexit-related uncertainty is doing subtle but serious economic damage.

自从英国于2016年6月投票退出欧盟（EU）以来，支持脱欧者们（Leavers）一直在幸灾乐祸。 尽管支持留欧（Remain）阵营对未来预测是不好的，但经济似乎还能勉强撑住。但是，这样的好日子要到头了。8月9日公布的数据显示，英国第二季度的国内GDP萎缩。越来越多的研究表明，与脱欧相关的不确定性正在造成微妙但严重的经济损失。

trundle 缓慢，沉重地行走。这里是指经济在勉强前行。

crowing 鸣叫，欢叫。后面dying down可以理解为：鸣叫在减弱而逝去，再结合上文可以把鸣叫理解为经济的发展。

Brexit-related与脱欧有关的

A paper published early this year by

Meredith Crowley, Oliver Exton and Lu Han

of the University of Cambridge reckons

that uncertainty over trade policy has dented export prospects. Had the vote not taken

place, 5% more firms would have exported

new products to the EU in 2016 alone.

剑桥大学的Meredith Crowley，Oliver Exton和Lu Han今年早些时候发表的一篇论文认为，贸易政策的不确定性让出口贸易的前景暗淡。如果当时没有进行脱欧投票的话，仅仅在2016年将会有多出5％的公司会向欧盟出口新的产品。

dent prospect 破坏......的前景，也可用 ruin/undermine prospect.

After the referendum, economists from

the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University set up the

“Decision-maker panel”, a survey that regularly polls executives across the country’s

industries and regions. In a new paper the

researchers examine the responses of

5,900 firms, representing 14% of private sector jobs, to gauge the effect of Brexit uncertainty on business.

在脱欧公投之后，来自英格兰银行，诺丁汉大学和斯坦福大学的经济学家们成立了一个“决策者小组”，这项调查定期对全国各行业和地区的高管进行调查。在一篇新论文中，研究人员检查了5,900家公司对此的回应，这些公司占私营部门工作的14％，用于衡量英国退欧不确定性对企业的影响。

The results are startling. The uncertainty that comes with a rise in oil prices or an

unexpected bank failure can be costly, but

typically abates as more information becomes available. Brexit uncertainty is

unusually persistent—after all, three years

after the vote, the terms of departure are

still unclear. 

调查的结果令人吃惊。油价上涨或意料之外银行倒闭带来的不确定性可能会让我们付出惨痛的代价，但随着我们获取更多的信息，这种不确定性会减少。英国脱欧的不确定性会异乎寻常地持续存在 - 毕竟，在投票三年之后，脱欧的条款仍然不明朗。

Bosses reporting greater uncertainty

also appear to have scaled back investment

more. But the depressing effect is not quite

what forecasters had envisaged in 2016.

They had pencilled in a steep drop in investment immediately after the vote that

would ease as firms adjusted to the new

world. But in fact the drag on investment

has worsened over time. 

公司老板们说，更大不确定性似乎也更多地缩减了投资。但令人沮丧的影响并不是预测者在2016年所设想的那样。他们在脱欧投票后立即预测投资会急剧下降，但会随着公司适应新的世界环境而缓和。但事实上，随着时间的推移，投资反而持续恶化。

Importantly, the deceleration in investment has had significant knock-on effects on Britain’s productivity, which even before the referendum was dismal. That is partly because managers have been forced to spend valuable time planning. Between November 2018 and January 2019, nearly three-quarters of bosses put aside time each week to prepare for various outcomes. But uncertainty has also been a bigger burden on exporters, which tend to be more productive than firms catering to the home market. All told, productivity is 2-5% lower than it would have been without the uncertainty. Brexit still carries plenty of unknowns. The effect on Britain’s economy, though, is becoming ever clearer.

重要的是，投资减速对英国的生产率产生了巨大的连锁影响，甚至在公投前情况已经很惨。其部分原因是管理人员被迫花费宝贵的时间进行规划。在2018年11月至2019年1月期间，将近四分之三的老板们每周都要留出时间准备应对各种结果。出口商往往比迎合国内市场的公司更具生产力，但不确定性对出口商来说也是一个更大的负担， 总而言之，生产率比没有不确定性存在的情况低了2-5％。英国脱欧仍有许多未知数。不过，对英国经济的影响正变得越来越清晰。